How replacements will drive the European trailer market’s recovery | articles | ING THINK

The under-cooled European trailer market has reached a turning point heading into 2026. The rolling stock has more than enough capacity, but the fleet is ageing, and quality concerns are top of mind. We expect replacements to drive the market's recovery this year, although limited freight growth will likely dampen the rebound

The trailer market is traditionally sensitive to economic conditions. New deliveries fell to 60-80% of pre-pandemic levels in individual countries in 2025, as investments can be scaled back relatively easily. After record sales in countries such as Poland and the Netherlands in 2021-2022, the European trailer market cooled significantly amid weakening post-pandemic transport demand. Large fleet owners, including rental and leasing companies, also delayed investments. Consolidation moves – DSV’s acquisition of DB Schenker, for instance – contributed to pauses in spending, as this brought a natural moment to review the joint fleet.

However, new registrations appear to have bottomed out and begun to recover towards 2026 in major markets like Germany. Production cuts and short-time work (“Kurzarbeit”) at leading manufacturers Krone and Schmitz persisted into 2025, but output gradually improved over the year. Meanwhile, weak market conditions continued to squeeze margins, prompting manufacturers to focus more on maintenance and fleet services.